China Communications Enterprises Association Supports Ministry of Commerce's Investigation into U.S. Related Products and Measures SHFE Tin Price Maintains Fluctuating Rangebound Trend [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

September 15, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Briefing:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2510) edged up slightly in the night session and hovered at highs, closing at 274,100 yuan/mt, up 0.48% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) The China Association of Communication Enterprises issued a statement supporting the Ministry of Commerce’s investigation into US-related products and measures: On September 13, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China announced the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation into imports of certain analog chips originating from the US and an anti-discrimination investigation into US measures in the integrated circuit sector against China. The China Association of Communication Enterprises firmly supports this decision and resolutely endorses the Chinese government’s necessary actions taken in accordance with the law to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of China’s information and communication industry and enterprises. The healthy development of the information and communication industry relies on an open, fair, and orderly market competition environment. We call on the global industry to work together to oppose any form of protectionism and unilateral sanctions, and to promote sustainable and win-win development through technological innovation, industry chain collaboration, and international cooperation. (2) On September 14, according to the Guangzhou Municipal Commerce Bureau, the special campaign to promote auto consumption in Guangzhou was launched. From September 15 to 30, car purchase subsidies of up to 5,000 yuan are available (total amount of 300 million yuan, first come first served, while supplies last). During the campaign, individual consumers who purchase a new passenger car with a pre-tax price of 100,000 yuan or above from participating auto sales enterprises and complete motor vehicle registration can receive subsidies. Specifically, for pre-tax car invoice amounts of 100,000-200,000 yuan (inclusive), the subsidy is 4,000 yuan; for amounts above 200,000 yuan (exclusive), the subsidy is 5,000 yuan. Each individual consumer can only enjoy one campaign subsidy. In addition, on top of the government cash subsidy, individual consumers can also receive a complementary benefits package worth no less than 1,000 yuan or 2,000 yuan provided by the campaign platform. (3) On September 13, the Ministry of Commerce announced the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation into imports of certain analog chips originating from the US. According to the application filed by the Jiangsu Semiconductor Industry Association, the relevant US producers include four companies: Texas Instruments, ADI, Broadcom, and ON Semiconductor. Preliminary evidence submitted by the Jiangsu Semiconductor Industry Association shows that during the application investigation period, the price of the investigated products originating from the US continued to decline significantly, with the dumping margin for exports to China as high as over 300%. The investigated products accounted for an average of 41% of the Chinese market share annually. In terms of absolute import volume, the total imports of the investigated products showed a continuous and significant upward trend from 2022 to 2024, with total imports of 1.159 billion, 1.299 billion, and 1.59 billion units, respectively.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply tightened in major producing regions such as Yunnan. Some smelters remained shut for maintenance in September (Bullish ★). (2) Demand side: PV industry: After the installation rush, orders for PV tin bars in east China declined, and some producers reduced operating rates. Electronics industry: End-users in south China entered the off-season, coupled with high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment, with orders limited to just-in-time procurement. Other sectors: Demand remained stable in areas such as tinplate and chemicals, without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: SHFE tin prices fluctuated upward overall last week. The most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract was under pressure and fluctuated at the beginning of the week, but then rebounded continuously driven by strengthened US interest rate cut expectations and tight supply. As of the close on September 12, it settled at 273,950 yuan/mt, up 2,540 yuan or 0.94% for the day. Spot prices rose more than 4,000 yuan over the week. Trading in the spot market was sluggish due to high prices, with downstream users mainly making just-in-time procurement.

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